TOPIC 6: What Should Be The Strategy of AAP In The Coming Days
AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

Dear Friends,

To all of you, who have read our Posts, we extend a BIG THANK YOU. 
We would like to analyse with you what we have gained from the analysis in the previous 
5 TOPICS. This will help us chart our future activities and give a direction to AAP.
1. Philosophy of “AAP - the Road Ahead”: This group’s philosophy is to move away from news. News belongs to yesterday. Yesterday is past. We can do nothing about it to-day. We must look ahead to the future. We must focus on where we would like to reach, rather than ponder over failures. We thus like to analyse whether the actions of the past and present would take us there. If not, we would like to determine what are the problems and shortcomings which are holding us back, or may become bottle-necks. We like to analyse what are our strengths and weaknesses are, vis-à-vis the competition, and how we can ensure that we stand a better chance of success.

2. What is the status of “AAP - the Road Ahead”: We are an independent volunteer group, completely separate from AAP political party, and have no official linkage to it. As such we are unbiased, and do not have any reason to justify and cling to the past actions and strategies of AAP. We also do not have any reason to support or oppose any particular member of the AAP party. We consider that in view of this, we are in a suitable position to work on a strategy and action-plan, for achieving the best future for AAP and for the country.

3. Should the status of Arvind Kejriwal be changed within AAP: This point has been raised by a few AAP supporters, who have said that Kejriwal has taken wrong decisions at critical junctures and his image has taken a beating following the loss of the recent elections.
We have analysed this in detail, and have come to the following conclusions:
a) More than 97% AAP supporters are of the firm opinion that Kejriwal is their idol and they think that no one can replace him. In the opinion of the general public also, Kejriwal has become synonymous with clean and corruption-free political and administrative system.
b) The opposition also has not been able to find any answer to Kejriwal, which is evident from the only strategy they know to counter him – throw mud and spoil his reputation. They have completely failed in that also.
c) No one is infallible, and every strategy has a risk of failure, as no one knows the future. It has been realized by this group, that AAP needs an independent Think-Tank, separate from the action-implementation group, to ensure better strategy formulation, and mid-term strategy correction, if required.
d) In the recent Parliamentary elections, AAP’s vote-share performance of Delhi has improved by 3% over that for the Assembly elections. It is thus evident that the AAP supporters very strongly identify the AAP movement with Kejriwal. Any change in leadership will be disastrous for the movement’s support.

4. Should AAP continue with its strategy of protests, agitations and dharnas: AAP took its birth from the various agitations its members had held on the issue of corruption and criminalisation of politics in India. These were very successful in creating a mass desire in the country for cleaning up public life and administration. People realized that it was possible to do so, and the existing political parties could be challenged. A movement at this level had never been seen in independent India. This unprecedented success also had its downside. AAP could not get out of this agitational mould even after getting a chance at governance.
Many of you have said that AAP has to evaluate when it should take up agitations and when it should follow a strategy of diplomatic negotiation. AAP has to realize that the general public’s life gets disrupted by agitations. They would like that matters should be solved by negotiations, and agitations should only be the last resort.

5. Was the General Election defeat of AAP a major setback to the movement: 
• This false conclusion had been spread by Paid Media, by trying to show that AAP had got less than 3% of vote share nationally, and is, hence, a failure. It deliberately avoided mentioning the fact that in a race, which was as unequal as David against Goliath, AAP had managed to achieve the second position in all 7 Delhi seats.
• In reality, the results conclusively show that it was the end of the road for old and established parties, which did far worse than AAP. Such false and misleading news reportage had only one objective – demoralize AAP supporters. We should not fall for such a trap.
• This negative and false news reports did dampen the enthusiasm of a few AAP supporters. However, the overwhelming majority of AAP supporters realized that the war with a corrupt political and administrative system cannot be a short one. It is a very long and difficult race. They have also seen that the enemy can be defeated. It is now only a question of time.
• BJP knows that it has won the election by making false promises, and the 12% additional vote share it has got, was not from its committed supporters, but from swing voters. These voters could change over to AAP in the coming Assembly elections. BJP is fully aware AAP could become a major thorn in its flesh and can swing some of its vote share in the assembly elections. It is all the more possible as during Delhi assembly elections, AAP would be able to concentrate all its resources in Delhi alone. The impact of AAP’s strategy of person to person contact is well-known to BJP and the media.
• To-day, if anyone should fear the future, it is the BJP, which has won a land-slide victory with barely 31% of national vote share. The critical fact is that out of these 31% voters, 12% are swing voters, who have little or no loyalty to BJP. These voters had never voted for BJP in their life. If they had always supported BJP, it would have won elections consistently. At the first indication that BJP is not able to deliver on its promises, these voters will move away from BJP. Where will they move to? They cannot go back to their old parties, in whom they have lost complete confidence. AAP will be their only hope.
• We see that there is renewed and greater enthusiasm in AAP supporters to-day, than ever before. Simultaneously we have also read responses that show that AAP supporters feel that they are lacking direction and would, if given proper guidance, would like to contribute in every way that they can. They just need to have clear-cut direction. We, hence, feel that AAP needs to start a mass training and guidance system for its supporters.

6. Has BJP won the hearts and minds of the Indian voters: 
• This conclusion is what the paid-media would like everyone to believe. It is as true or as false as the Modi Wave. With a mere 12% swing of votes in its favour, and BJP getting only 31% of national vote share, it means that 69% of voting public does not like BJP. This is in spite of its very costly and high decibel marketing campaign. If anything, most of these 69% voters have complete antipathy to BJP’s policies.
• In Delhi, with a very large BJP support base, AAP increased its vote share in Parliamentary elections by 3% over that it had won in the Assembly elections. All 7 AAP contestants came second to the winning BJP candidate, showing that AAP support base had increased in Delhi. This is in spite of the 24x7 national TV channel negative publicity campaign, conducted by the paid media in the lead up to the national elections. It continuously referred to AAP as an irresponsible party, which had left the Delhi public in a lurch. It is clear from the results, that the Delhi voting public did not buy the media argument.
• If Delhi elections are held to-day, who will the Delhi public vote for?
In the last 2013 assembly elections, Congress had won 8 assembly seats. Congress is highly unlikely to win even one seat in next election. Will AAP retain the 28 seats it won? As AAP voter base has increased, AAP is most likely to retain all its 28 seats. Will AAP win more seats? This is highly likely, as Delhi public has experience of BJP before, and they found them inefficient and corrupt. This had helped congress in winning the elections for the last two terms. Delhi is a city dominated by small-businesses. As BJP has taken a position to support large business houses and foreign investments, the small-business owner will feel threatened. Also, BJP is bound to take actions supporting Reliance, which will mean increase in costs for the Delhi housewife. Additionally, Delhi people know that if BJP were to rule in the centre and in Delhi also, it would become too arrogant and autocratic. It would be important for AAP to play on all these sentiments and highlight them to voters.

7. Conclusion: AAP should now concentrate on the Delhi assembly elections. It should formulate a strategy as to how it can consolidate and increase its support base in at least 36 assembly segments in Delhi to win these seats and be able to form the local state government. This is most critical for AAP’s future. Winning the Delhi assembly elections would present AAP as a viable counter to BJP. It is also critically important as it will demonstrate the hollowness of the Modi Wave. Delhi elections will have very large and significant influence on future regional elections.

We would request you to let us know your responses to our posts, both by your comments and suggestions. This will help us to understand how we can improve our posts.

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD