TOPIC 2: WHAT ACTUALLY LED TO BJP-MODI VICTORY

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

1. The Truth of the massive BJP-MODI win: The media will have us believe that Modi’s leadership led BJP to a landslide victory and created a huge Modi wave across the country. Let us examine the veracity of this claim. 
BJP won 282 seats with just 31% of the vote share in this election. 
In 2009 BJP's vote share was 18.5% and it had won 116 seats. Thus BJP won 176 additional seats in this election, by getting only an additional vote share of 12.5%.
Can 12.5% extra vote share justify itself to be called a Wave, much less a Tsunami?

2. Was it an anti-incumbency vote: This is another false premise. Why were the three states of West Bengal, Orissa and Tamil Nadu not affected by anti-incumbency? If anything the position of the local governments improved in this election.

3. Was it a vote for the Gujarat Development Model: Another false argument being given by both the media and BJP is that the exemplary development of the Gujarat state, crafted by Modi, and shown to the Indian voters, mesmerized the whole of the country and created the Modi Wave. Why was this development not talked about in 2009 elections? Surely, BJP knew about it, if it had existed then. Also, if the Gujarat development model is so great, why in Modi’s own Gujarat, the vote share of BJP is less than 50%. Either the Gujarat model’s falsity is well-known to the local Gujarati voters or its impact on the Indian voters, as projected by the media, is not true.

4. Was it a vote for clean politics: Neither Gujarat is a corruption free state, nor Gujaratis are known to be more honest than any other Indian community. Corruption is an India –wide phenomenon. The well-known business houses of Gujarat are well-known for their corrupt practices. Even many well-known corrupt politicians were given berth in the Modi bandwagon, due to their winning ability. BJP cannot be given the medal of corruption-free politics.

5. Did the minorities vote for Modi: Modi and media is creating a big song and dance about votes for Modi coming from all sections of the society. They are trying to say that this election has proved that minorities have accepted Modi and BJP. As Modi only got an additional 12.5% of the vote share, if Modi had got Muslim votes than his vote share % would have been much higher, as Muslims are supposed to vote en-block. As Indian Muslims constitute nearly 18% of voters, even if 50% Muslims have voted for Modi, this would mean an increase of 9% vote share. This would mean that Hindu vote share increased for Modi increased by only 3.5%. Can 3.5% additional votes justify to be called any wave at all, leave aside a Tsunami? This implies that the maximum votes that Modi may have got from Muslims cannot be over 2-3%. So, we are now left to understand that the Modi wave only meant an extra 9% votes from the Hindu voters.

6. Did Modi have a great leadership image which got him the votes: This is another myth foisted on us by the BJP-paid media. If Modi was such a great visionary leader, why only 9 months before the elections there were at least 5 leaders being considered for BJP’s PM candidate position. Modi would have stood head and shoulders above them, if his leadership was unsurpassed, and there should have been no talk of any competition.

7. All opposition parties failed miserably: Congress in 2004 had 36% vote-share, which has now reduced to 19.3%. Thus Congress has lost about 17% vote-share. Even if we were to assume that Modi’s vote-share increase of 12.5% was due to people rejecting Congress en-masse, even then about 4.5% of Congress vote-share went to some other parties. Other parties, in such a scenario would have increased their vote share and not reduced their share. This is not the fact. Thus it does not seem logical to assume that the voters rejected all parties completely and got influenced by the Modi wave. There was definitely a swing from other parties to BJP, but the swing was hardly 15-20%, which does not mean a wave, much less a tsunami. This level of swing occurs in every election.

8. If all the above arguments do not seem logical, what is the truth of the Great Modi Victory?
The answer to the puzzle and the logically correct reasons of Modi victory is intimately linked to the next topic in our discussion

TOPIC 3: WHERE DID AAP GO WRONG

Do not miss seeing it and please keep giving your suggestions, comments and reactions. These will help us form a strategy, which will be put before you for your comments as TOPIC 6. 

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD