TOPIC 6: What Should Be The Strategy of AAP In The Coming Days
AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

Dear Friends,

To all of you, who have read our Posts, we extend a BIG THANK YOU. 
We would like to analyse with you what we have gained from the analysis in the previous 
5 TOPICS. This will help us chart our future activities and give a direction to AAP.
1. Philosophy of “AAP - the Road Ahead”: This group’s philosophy is to move away from news. News belongs to yesterday. Yesterday is past. We can do nothing about it to-day. We must look ahead to the future. We must focus on where we would like to reach, rather than ponder over failures. We thus like to analyse whether the actions of the past and present would take us there. If not, we would like to determine what are the problems and shortcomings which are holding us back, or may become bottle-necks. We like to analyse what are our strengths and weaknesses are, vis-à-vis the competition, and how we can ensure that we stand a better chance of success.

2. What is the status of “AAP - the Road Ahead”: We are an independent volunteer group, completely separate from AAP political party, and have no official linkage to it. As such we are unbiased, and do not have any reason to justify and cling to the past actions and strategies of AAP. We also do not have any reason to support or oppose any particular member of the AAP party. We consider that in view of this, we are in a suitable position to work on a strategy and action-plan, for achieving the best future for AAP and for the country.

3. Should the status of Arvind Kejriwal be changed within AAP: This point has been raised by a few AAP supporters, who have said that Kejriwal has taken wrong decisions at critical junctures and his image has taken a beating following the loss of the recent elections.
We have analysed this in detail, and have come to the following conclusions:
a) More than 97% AAP supporters are of the firm opinion that Kejriwal is their idol and they think that no one can replace him. In the opinion of the general public also, Kejriwal has become synonymous with clean and corruption-free political and administrative system.
b) The opposition also has not been able to find any answer to Kejriwal, which is evident from the only strategy they know to counter him – throw mud and spoil his reputation. They have completely failed in that also.
c) No one is infallible, and every strategy has a risk of failure, as no one knows the future. It has been realized by this group, that AAP needs an independent Think-Tank, separate from the action-implementation group, to ensure better strategy formulation, and mid-term strategy correction, if required.
d) In the recent Parliamentary elections, AAP’s vote-share performance of Delhi has improved by 3% over that for the Assembly elections. It is thus evident that the AAP supporters very strongly identify the AAP movement with Kejriwal. Any change in leadership will be disastrous for the movement’s support.

4. Should AAP continue with its strategy of protests, agitations and dharnas: AAP took its birth from the various agitations its members had held on the issue of corruption and criminalisation of politics in India. These were very successful in creating a mass desire in the country for cleaning up public life and administration. People realized that it was possible to do so, and the existing political parties could be challenged. A movement at this level had never been seen in independent India. This unprecedented success also had its downside. AAP could not get out of this agitational mould even after getting a chance at governance.
Many of you have said that AAP has to evaluate when it should take up agitations and when it should follow a strategy of diplomatic negotiation. AAP has to realize that the general public’s life gets disrupted by agitations. They would like that matters should be solved by negotiations, and agitations should only be the last resort.

5. Was the General Election defeat of AAP a major setback to the movement: 
• This false conclusion had been spread by Paid Media, by trying to show that AAP had got less than 3% of vote share nationally, and is, hence, a failure. It deliberately avoided mentioning the fact that in a race, which was as unequal as David against Goliath, AAP had managed to achieve the second position in all 7 Delhi seats.
• In reality, the results conclusively show that it was the end of the road for old and established parties, which did far worse than AAP. Such false and misleading news reportage had only one objective – demoralize AAP supporters. We should not fall for such a trap.
• This negative and false news reports did dampen the enthusiasm of a few AAP supporters. However, the overwhelming majority of AAP supporters realized that the war with a corrupt political and administrative system cannot be a short one. It is a very long and difficult race. They have also seen that the enemy can be defeated. It is now only a question of time.
• BJP knows that it has won the election by making false promises, and the 12% additional vote share it has got, was not from its committed supporters, but from swing voters. These voters could change over to AAP in the coming Assembly elections. BJP is fully aware AAP could become a major thorn in its flesh and can swing some of its vote share in the assembly elections. It is all the more possible as during Delhi assembly elections, AAP would be able to concentrate all its resources in Delhi alone. The impact of AAP’s strategy of person to person contact is well-known to BJP and the media.
• To-day, if anyone should fear the future, it is the BJP, which has won a land-slide victory with barely 31% of national vote share. The critical fact is that out of these 31% voters, 12% are swing voters, who have little or no loyalty to BJP. These voters had never voted for BJP in their life. If they had always supported BJP, it would have won elections consistently. At the first indication that BJP is not able to deliver on its promises, these voters will move away from BJP. Where will they move to? They cannot go back to their old parties, in whom they have lost complete confidence. AAP will be their only hope.
• We see that there is renewed and greater enthusiasm in AAP supporters to-day, than ever before. Simultaneously we have also read responses that show that AAP supporters feel that they are lacking direction and would, if given proper guidance, would like to contribute in every way that they can. They just need to have clear-cut direction. We, hence, feel that AAP needs to start a mass training and guidance system for its supporters.

6. Has BJP won the hearts and minds of the Indian voters: 
• This conclusion is what the paid-media would like everyone to believe. It is as true or as false as the Modi Wave. With a mere 12% swing of votes in its favour, and BJP getting only 31% of national vote share, it means that 69% of voting public does not like BJP. This is in spite of its very costly and high decibel marketing campaign. If anything, most of these 69% voters have complete antipathy to BJP’s policies.
• In Delhi, with a very large BJP support base, AAP increased its vote share in Parliamentary elections by 3% over that it had won in the Assembly elections. All 7 AAP contestants came second to the winning BJP candidate, showing that AAP support base had increased in Delhi. This is in spite of the 24x7 national TV channel negative publicity campaign, conducted by the paid media in the lead up to the national elections. It continuously referred to AAP as an irresponsible party, which had left the Delhi public in a lurch. It is clear from the results, that the Delhi voting public did not buy the media argument.
• If Delhi elections are held to-day, who will the Delhi public vote for?
In the last 2013 assembly elections, Congress had won 8 assembly seats. Congress is highly unlikely to win even one seat in next election. Will AAP retain the 28 seats it won? As AAP voter base has increased, AAP is most likely to retain all its 28 seats. Will AAP win more seats? This is highly likely, as Delhi public has experience of BJP before, and they found them inefficient and corrupt. This had helped congress in winning the elections for the last two terms. Delhi is a city dominated by small-businesses. As BJP has taken a position to support large business houses and foreign investments, the small-business owner will feel threatened. Also, BJP is bound to take actions supporting Reliance, which will mean increase in costs for the Delhi housewife. Additionally, Delhi people know that if BJP were to rule in the centre and in Delhi also, it would become too arrogant and autocratic. It would be important for AAP to play on all these sentiments and highlight them to voters.

7. Conclusion: AAP should now concentrate on the Delhi assembly elections. It should formulate a strategy as to how it can consolidate and increase its support base in at least 36 assembly segments in Delhi to win these seats and be able to form the local state government. This is most critical for AAP’s future. Winning the Delhi assembly elections would present AAP as a viable counter to BJP. It is also critically important as it will demonstrate the hollowness of the Modi Wave. Delhi elections will have very large and significant influence on future regional elections.

We would request you to let us know your responses to our posts, both by your comments and suggestions. This will help us to understand how we can improve our posts.

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

TOPIC 5 - PART 3: How should AAP utilize its positives and manage its negatives. 


AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

Dear Friends,
To-day we are presenting the third part of a crucial topic, the weaknesses of AAP. We are thankful to all of you for reading our posts and sending in your comments. We have incorporated your views and they have definitely improved our presentation.

TOPIC 5 - PART 3

The crux of the AAP strategy must be based on guerrilla tactics. It must be “Low Cost – High Impact – Easy To Duplicate – Difficult To Suppress – Unconventional”.
Shivaji used these tactics to bring the mighty Mogul Army to its knees. Let’s do the same to BJP. All our energies must be focused on a single opponent.

1. Utilizing AAP’s strengths:
a) The enthusiasm of AAP to be kept at a high level: The opponents are playing their dirty game of trying and demotivating AAP supporters to break-up the organization, using Paid Media. Even resignations by a very few AAP leaders, is played out as if it’s the end of road. Happily AAP supporters are made of sterner stuff and are not swayed by such news items. However, absence of news and spread of false news both can cause dissonance and start rumours, depressing supporters. As such, it’s the need of the hour that AAP should use Social Media and Blogging to create their own News Dissemination System. News collection should be done on an All-India basis by AAP volunteers. Collating of these on a single platform must be done centrally and dissemination must be done in as many languages as possible.

b) Self-starter spirit: AAP cannot afford a highly organized BJP RSS like rigid and elaborate structure. Also such a structure is not suitable for guerrilla tactics. Our structure should be flexible and with very little hierarchy. Strategies should be simple and free from dogma. The self-starter spirit of AAP volunteers will modify and adapt it to local conditions. Opponents will not know what strategy is being used where, so they cannot have a co-ordinated reaction to it. Their rigid structure will not allow flexibility. This is exactly how Shivaji fought Aurangzeb.

c) Resolve to analyse the failure frankly and modify action plan: This is a great strength, as AAP supporters do not get disheartened by failure, but analyse within their groups where AAP went wrong. Unhappily because of a near absence of a two-way communication between AAP supporters and AAP leaders, the supporters are at a complete loss to know how they can help the organization. Thus AAP is losing out on a major group which can take up the fight. We must create a 2 Way communication channel for taking quick corrective actions, which is the core of guerrilla tactics.

d) A country-wide panoramic unity for continuing the struggle: This is a very great strength of AAP where all supporters are concerned only on issue- based discussions and not on the caste and religion of anyone. A strategy made with such considerations is not even taken up for consideration by the groups. This should be the basic criterion for all AAP supporters and any deviation from this should be nipped in the bud. This will encourage all sections to interact with us freely, and will be a great strength while conducting Nukkad – Sabhas. We are representing people and their problems which has nothing to do with their caste or religious identities. We should take up problems they are facing because of any discrimination against them, but not fight for advantages for them based on their caste or religious status.

e) Continue fight against corruption: AAP has become strongly identified with corruption removal and should continue with that. Using cameras/video cameras for recording and exposing corruption in the daily lives of people should be a regular phenomenon. This should be given wide publicity through face book and social media. Also AAP should develop relationship with smaller media groups, who are not BJP funded, for such expose. This will give the small media visibility and mind space of readers and they would look forward to such stories from AAP. In turn they will give favorable coverage to AAP. This again is Shivaji’s guerrilla strategy in which he did not fight on large battlefields but on smaller ones where flexibility was critical and not size.

2. How to counter negatives of AAP: 
a) The present organizational structure of AAP is unsuitable for governance: This should be a top priority for AAP, as the present structure is seriously jeopardizing AAP’s effectiveness. The organic and flexible structure was very apt for agitational activism. The same situation was faced by V P Singh government which could not adjust itself which led to its failure. The organizational structure governs the mind-set and implementation system. AAP should have two separate bodies. One should be responsible for strategic thinking and look at the economic scenario of the country, continually monitor road-blocks to progress and interact with all stakeholders. AAP has failed to do this, leading to serious doubts in the minds of various sections how they will fare in an AAP dispensation. This is a recipe for disaster. The second body should be involved in implementation of agreed strategies. This should have units for monitoring and auditing target achievement, course correction and feedback to public. The present Planning Commission is a non-dynamic and bureaucratic and does not reward performance. AAP should start from scratch.

b) AAP’s communication system to its bases is very poor or non-existent: This leads to support units working at cross-purposes and getting influenced by their own distorted information systems, thus leading to frustration. AAP should set-up a very senior party leader with exclusive responsibility of quick and continuous 2-Way Communication. Guerrilla tactics can only succeed if the team knows its action plan in detail and the leader knows how each member is performing and what resources are needed by him.

c) AAP has no organized selection and training system for its pan-India activities: For optimum performance, continuous training is a must. This can be done economically and with high impact through videos, regularly exchanged with support groups. Also, recruitment can no longer be a voluntary phenomenon. Support groups should be encouraged and motivated to keep increasing their number. There should be an optimum size of a support group. As the group gets bigger, a new group should be started. Each group should have a specific identity in the social media with responsibility of a geographical territory. Support groups should be trained to generate funding for their own activities with proper documentation, control and audit.

d) AAP lacks diplomatic negotiating ability: Effective functioning and governance is crucially dependent upon diplomatic negotiating skills. AAP seriously lacks these skills. Public does not like agitations, and to-day even left parties have serious reservations about strikes, pen-downs and dharnas. My way or highway approach does not work to-day. Negotiations and diplomacy are the means to achieve results without disruptions. It is not only an accepted form but expected form of governing ability. AAP should identify such people and encourage them to join.

e) AAP has no mass communication platform: This is a serious weakness as AAP is dependent on a hostile media for reaching its voters and supporters. During the elections, media played a game where it has unabashedly supported BJP, completely ignored SP, BSP, TMC, AIADMK, and BJD, while painting both Congress and AAP as incompetent. The only effective way to reach the masses is through Nukkad-Sabhas. These will require trained volunteers with continuous updates. However, the impact of this will be huge. The volunteers should engage people in a 2-way dialogue to understand their issues and give them guidance. These Nukkad-Sabhas can become self-funded, if the volunteers are able to resolve issues by interacting with local administration. AAP volunteers should scrupulously avoid getting involved in political messaging or BJP bashing at these Sabhas, as it would polarize the groups and people will be afraid to air their grievances. The administration may also become antagonised and may not extend help.

Please feel free to read our previous posts on AAP-The Road Ahead:

TOPIC 1:  Analysis of the mood of the country
TOPIC 2:  What actually led to BJP-Modi victory
TOPIC 3:  Where Did AAP Go Wrong
TOPIC 4:  What are the structural strengths and weaknesses of BJP
TOPIC 5:  What should be AAP 's focus now -----in three parts

The future strategy for AAP which will evolve from your responses will be our final TOPIC:
TOPIC 6 : Discussions Of Points Raised By All Of You And Final Strategy Formulation
We must ensure that no obstacles can now stop AAP - from THE ROAD AHEAD.

Looking forward to your participation.

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

TOPIC 5 - PART 2:  WHAT SHOULD BE AAP'S FOCUS NOW 


AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

Dear Friends,
To-day we are presenting the second part of a crucial topic, the strength and weaknesses of AAP. We are thankful to all of you for reading our posts and sending in your comments. We have incorporated your views and they have definitely improved our presentation.

TOPIC 5 - PART 2
What things are not going in favor of AAP, and should be urgently attended to:

a) The present organizational structure is unsuitable for governance: The agitational approach, which was the cause of AAP’s birth, required a dynamic, close-knit organization. Such an organization could take quick actions, without wide pan-group discussions, throwing the ruling party off-balance. This proved very useful and resulted in the wide appreciation and steep popularity growth for AAP, leaving existing parties clueless as to how to react. After AAP had formed a political party and took up the government formation in Delhi, this organization structure proved inappropriate. The agitational actions of AAP left its own supporters unable to justify AAP’s actions and they turned critical. Governance is done with a sense of responsibility and public does not like nasty surprises and disturbance to its daily life. AAP was termed immature and incapable of implementing development, leading to a large AAP middle-class support base changing over to BJP. This has cost AAP dearly in the recent elections.

b) AAP’s communication system to its bases is very poor or non-existent: This weakness results from the improper organization structure discussed in a) above. Party workers and supporters need continuous information about the party’s policies, action plans and guidance. AAP has no mechanism for providing this. In my own personal discussions with AAP head office, they expected me to write to them by e-mail, to which they would reply. Replies take 10-15 days. You cannot run a political party like this, much less a campaign. AAP must have a pro-active communication system, headed by a very senior functionary, who can disseminate information in real time. AAP has a huge Facebook community who are very sharp and can become a great strength in communication for AAP, if utilized properly.

c) AAP has no organized selection and training system for its pan-India activities: Due to its knee-jerk planning approach, AAP went ahead for parliamentary elections on over 410 seats, with little resources in terms of money and people. Its explanation that this was not its own decision, but it was the people who wanted to fight, was not only very facile but vey irresponsible. Would AAP do anything just because people told it to do so? Repeatedly repeating the same on the national media showed AAP lacked strategic thinking. No marketing manager would ever launch a new product on an All-India basis with meagre resources. It’s a sure-fire recipe for disaster. Unless AAP creates a strategic think-tank, made up of corporate strategists, and not of lawyers and administrators, AAP cannot succeed. Failures, without a reasonable cause, result in demotivation of supporters, loss of confidence by public and loosing financial donors.

d) AAP lacks diplomatic negotiating ability: This again is a carry-over from the activism days of AAP. People expect that problems must be solved by negotiation and discussions. This is not a management jargon, but something inherent in our genes. Even in our epics, negotiations, even with arch enemies, has always been considered the most preferred option. Please refer Ramayana and Mahabharata. Confrontation is to be resorted to only after all avenues of settlement fail. Indians are brought up on the philosophy of peace, and not of agitation. It does not mean that agitation is not important, and the public has supported AAP for its valid agitations. But AAP did not realize when to agitate and when to negotiate. To win the political chess-board, you must corner the opponent, leaving it with very few options.

e) AAP has no mass communication platform: AAP was able to garner a large chunk of media time, when media found that AAP news was beneficial to its revenue model. When it was BJP paying media directly or indirectly, AAP lost out on this time. Also, media has the option of presenting AAP to the public in a positive or negative colour, as it suits its editorial priorities. If AAP has to be an effective political force, it must have a very strong capability of direct communication with the public, without distortion of its message. If AAP cannot afford normal media, it should create a very strong social media platform.

We shall next present TOPIC 5 - PART 3: How should AAP utilize its positives and manage its negatives. 

We invite all of you to send in your comments and suggestions on Part 1and 2 of TOPIC 5, and all previous TOPICS. We would like to incorporate them in our coming presentations.

Please feel free to read our previous posts on AAP-The Road Ahead:

TOPIC 1:  ANALYSIS OF THE MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
TOPIC 2:  WHAT ACTUALLY LED TO BJP-MODI VICTORY
TOPIC 3:  WHERE DID AAP GO WRONG
TOPIC 4:  WHAT ARE THE STRUCTURAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF BJP
TOPIC 5 - PART 1  What things are going in favour of AAP 

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

TOPIC 5 - PART 1:  WHAT SHOULD BE AAP'S FOCUS NOW 


AAP - the Road Ahead

Dear Friends,
To-day we are presenting the first part of a crucial topic, the strengths of AAP. We are thankful to all of you for reading our posts and sending in your comments. We have incorporated your views and they have definitely improved our presentation.

TOPIC 5 - PART 1

1. What things are going in favour of AAP:

a) The enthusiasm of AAP: AAP supporters took a little dip after the election results, but they have resumed their fight with renewed enthusiasm. This shows that AAP supporters are not faint-hearted and are committed in their deep resolve to carry on their fight for AAP’s ultimate success. Short-term failures are not going to derail the movement. AAP supporters have complete faith in the ultimate success of their goal. This is crucial as many parties had a wishful thinking that there will be all-round despondency in AAP, leading to its collapse.

b) Self-starter spirit: AAP supporters have a self-starter spirit. Thousands of discussion groups and news sharing pages have started on social media completely at their own initiative. Such groups help to keep the enthusiasm alive and create new initiatives, and foil the plans of paid-media houses to disseminate false stories. This phenomenon reminds us of the huge viral communication which used to carry Gandhiji’s messages across the whole of India, without any mass media, and in face of British censorship. The situation is not very different to-day.

c) Resolve to analyse the failure frankly: There are serious country-wide discussions in AAP groups to analyse where AAP went wrong. There are no holy cows and supporters have not even spared Arvind Kejriwal for his resignation from Delhi government. However, there is no condemnation, and demand for a change-of-guard, as happens in all parties. This exemplifies the fact that, in spite of being politically immature, AAP leaders and supporters are not hungry to grab power at the first opportunity. There is no internal rivalry and groupism. Other parties have tried to sow such seeds, and have miserably failed. This shows a true democratic functioning, where a free and frank analysis can be done, which is essential for progress. This will stand AAP in good stead in future. No other party can claim this strength.

d) A country-wide panoramic unity for continuing the struggle: No leader can carry on a war where the soldiers start showing fatigue. It’s a measure of unity with a single-minded objective that AAP has followers on an All India basis, even after having lost deposit in most of the seats. There is a near complete absence of criticism that AAP put up its candidates in over 410 seats. People have justifiably said that if there were more resources available, the fight could have been more even. There is no region from where there is a thinking of disbanding AAP organization. On the other hand, every regional group wants to strengthen its units.

e) Impossibility of BJP claims of inclusive politics: There is an all-round condemnation of BJP even after BJP’s resounding win. BJP has tried to claim that all sectors of the voting public have accepted them. The reality, as discussed in TOPIC 1, is very different. AAP supporters know that in the present scenario, BJP cannot take all sections with it. Minority sections which had voted for BJP, due to its promises of inclusive governance, are now repenting, as they hardly see any representation from amongst them, in the parliament. These sections will now move towards AAP, as all other parties have lost their confidence. AAP is thus poised to increase its base in a short period of time. This may be crucial in the coming assembly elections.

f) Aap support base is truly inclusive without caste or religion bias: All AAP facebook forums consist of participants from different castes and religions. There is no attempt of domination by any one and there is a genuine appreciation and respect for all points of views. Most of the groups have strict self-discipline norm, which prohibits offensive and derogatory postings. Such offenders are warned and then blocked. The basic discussions are on news sharing and discussions about activities of AAP and its branches. Even BJP moles are not denounced or hounded, but politely told not to place offensive posts. Members routinely remind each other that as AAP supporters they should be careful and courteous in their postings. This shows that AAP philosophy of discarding caste and religion based politics, is not a mere slogan but is practiced by its supporters. The same cannot be said about any other party. This will be a great strength of AAP for creating a very wide base.

In The Next Topic,  TOPIC 5 - PART 2:, we shall present What things are not in favour of AAP

TOPIC 5 - PART 3: How should AAP utilize its positives and minimize impact of its negatives. This would be presented next.

We invite all of you to send in your comments and suggestions on Part 1, 2 and 3 of TOPIC 5. We would like to incorporate them in our coming presentations.

Please feel free to read our previous posts on AAP - The Road Ahead
TOPIC 1: ANALYSIS OF THE MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
TOPIC 2: WHAT ACTUALLY LED TO BJP-MODI VICTORY
TOPIC 3: WHERE DID AAP GO WRONG
TOPIC 4: WHAT ARE THE STRUCTURAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF BJP 

The future strategy for AAP shall evolve from your responses. That will be our final TOPIC:
TOPIC 6 : DISCUSSIONS OF POINTS RAISED BY ALL OF YOU AND FINAL STRATEGY FORMULATION

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

TOPIC 4:  WHAT ARE THE STRUCTURAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF BJP


AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

1. Why ANALYZE THE STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF BJP: It is the first law of war that we should know the strengths and weaknesses of the opponent as well as we know our own. We should take guard against his strengths and take advantage of his weaknesses. To-day the only opponent left standing in the field is BJP. All others have been annihilated. Between BJP and AAP it’s a fight of David vs Goliath. Goliath was giant and David was hardly a teenager. David had won by taking advantage of Goliath’s weakness. David used his intelligence against the brute strength and size of Goliath. AAP cannot match BJP’s size, money and cadres, which are essential for winning elections. AAP has to use intelligence to make these strengths of BJP useless. AAP cannot have a secret strategy, as nothing can be kept confidential in today’s world. So the strategy of AAP should be such that even if it was known to BJP, it would not be able to do much.

2. WHAT WEAKNESSES ARE BEST TO BE EXPLOITED: Every organization knows its weaknesses and tries to cover them from attack by opponents. The weaknesses which cannot be covered without compromising on the strengths are the best to be exploited. These are weaknesses that are inherent in the very strengths. An example may make the proposition clear. Colgate toothpaste was a white paste and had a leadership position. The white paste was meant to mimic that brushing with it will make your teeth white like it. Lever brothers tried to break Colgate monopoly with similar looking toothpastes, like Pepsodent. They repeatedly failed and lost money. Then they launched Close-Up and made marketing history. Close-Up was a blue gel and won a huge market share. Colgate could not change to a blue gel in retaliation, as it would lose its major strength of a white paste. Till to-day Colgate has not been able to dislodge Close-Up in the gel segment. To analyse BJP weaknesses let us understand BJP organization.

3. BJP ORGANIZATION AND ITS STRENGTHS: BJP, along with RSS, has a very cadre based organization which works in a semi-militia discipline. This ensures that all decisions of the central body are carried out with military precision. This organization has taken decades to create. In such an organization party decisions cannot be questioned by rank and file. Any democratic functioning is limited to the top committee. The organization also has some basic ethos which bind the organization and ensure compliance. Such an organization can only function smoothly when there is a strict code of conduct. There is a well-defined hierarchy. Communication is mostly top down with complete clarity of action plan and its implementation. This organization system ensures no dissidence by the cadre or confusion in the implementation of action on the ground by them. It is like well-oiled military machine.

4. FIRST WEAKNESS – TOP DOWN ORGANIZATION: In a top-down organization, information flow is also from top to down. Thus, if there are any major shifts at the operational level on the ground the top will take time to find them and react to them. Also, due to the homogeneity in the communication system, the whole organization has to go through the change, which means delay in reaction. The best way to frustrate such an organizational structure is using guerrilla tactics. Shivaji, with a much smaller army, was able to hold the mighty Moghul army at bay for years, sapping their strength and resources. AAP can do the same.

5. SECOND WEAKNESS – ABSENCE OF DISSENT: In a military style organization, dissent is rare and not encouraged from the cadre. The cadre is indoctrinated to follow the Guru (Sangh Sanchalak) without question. Any questions are only for removing doubts and not to challenge the decision. This works very nicely and efficiently till the top makes wrong decisions. Decisions can go wrong when information is incorrect or insufficient. Many battles have been lost by mighty armies due to this flaw. AAP can make swift changes in its plans to frustrate BJP’s well-oiled machinery.

6. THIRD WEAKNESS – LOCAL DIFFERENCES: The terrain is not same at all conflict zones. A well-disciplined army is practiced to operate in different terrains. But this requires multiple command levels as we all know every army must have. Unhappily because of the religious indoctrination of BJP and RSS, this flexibility is meagre. We have seen how BJP has made strategic blunders in Babri Masjid and 2002 Ahmedabad riot cases. Also, with BJP using media in a very big way, the message is bound to be common on an All India basis. AAP can exploit this weakness by itself following different strategies based on local differences. This way AAP will make the huge media promotion expenses go waste in many areas.

7. FOURTH WEAKNESS – RELIGIOUS BASIS: BJP and RSS are steeped in Hindutva. Any deviation from this would be suicidal. They are fully against minority appeasement. The RSS cadres have been nurtured with strong anti-minority ethos. In such a situation BJP can at best give a step-motherly treatment to minorities. For the first time since independence UP has no representation of Muslims in the Parliament. How can you generate confidence in over 30 million Muslims of UP if they have no voice? This is bound to create tensions under the surface initially and on the surface very soon. BJP cannot change this as its leaders come from RSS cadres, which does not take Muslims. AAP can fully exploit this weakness as it has no minority appeasement policy (like Congress), nor minority exclusion policy (like RSS).

8. CONCLUSION: There are many weaknesses in BJP – RSS combination which should be fully exploited by AAP, as its basic ethos has the very strengths which are BJKP’s weaknesses.

9. THE NEXT STEP: I hope we have realized how AAP, with much lesser resources, can succeed by exploiting the weaknesses of BJP. The next TOPIC is very crucial and shall form the basis of creating the future AAP strategy. Please read, share and give your comments
TOPIC 5 :  WHAT SHOULD BE AAP 'S FOCUS NOW

Do not miss seeing it and please keep giving your suggestions, comments and reactions. These will help us form a strategy, which will be put before you for your comments as 
TOPIC 6 

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

TOPIC 3:  WHERE DID AAP GO WRONG 


AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD1. Background: Six months ago AAP had created a mass hysteria among the people of India, and the media was reporting whatever AAP said or did. The unexpected success of AAP in the Delhi elections had taken the country by storm. Behind closed doors, established political parties were debating what was the AAP’s mantra of success. They were not prepared to accept that AAP had achieved the impossible by being truthful and honest. Young and old, whether poor or middle class, were equally mesmerized by the simple philosophy of creating “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat”.

2. THE AAP Phenomenon: The political parties tried every dirty trick to create a rift in AAP and tried to break it up. All dirty allegations were levelled against AAP functionaries. They were painted as unreliable, liars and unfaithful. They had ditched their own Guru, and they will ditch their supporters too. They were paid by foreign sources to destabilise India. But through all this the public support for AAP kept growing. AAP had shown that it meant business of removing corruption from the daily lives of Indians. AAP’s success would have sounded the death-knell of all established parties.

3. AAP’S PRODUCT OFFERING: All the above is true and all of us know it. Then why did AAP fail? Was it due to the Somnath Bharti’s Midnight raid? or was it due to AAP’s dharna before Republic Day Parade? Or AAP’s resignation from the Delhi Government caused AAP’s downfall? All these are important causes and all of us know it. In hindsight, we would like that AAP had tackled the situation differently. But did it justify the complete about turn of the public mood and support? The answer is NO. The failure occurred due to a basic flaw in the product offered to the public by AAP.

4. Revolutionary Change by AAP: No one likes a change. Just think - have you happily accepted a change in your life. Change in friends, school, favourite brand, favourite actor etc. The answer is NO. Why? Because change means RISK. You would like to minimize risk, just like everyone else. So you resist change. Marketing on the other hand can only succeed if it makes you change from your existing product to the new product. So marketing requires creating in your mind a feeling of dissatisfaction with your existing product. AAP had to sell to the common man a completely new political system, which was a complete change from the previous political system, by creating a sense of dissatisfaction.

5. AAP Succeeds in Creating Dissatisfaction: AAP was successful in creating a huge dissonance from the existing political system. The people were fed up with it, but had accepted it as they had no other alternative. But creating dissonance is only half the story. AAP had to offer a solution. And the solution had to be RISK FREE. How soon would you drop a new tooth-paste if you found that it caused you irritation in the mouth?

6. Was the experience of the public with AAP risk-free: What does the public want from the government? The public wants that the government should ensure that their daily lives are smooth and without NASTY surprises. Corruption is bad, but public does not like disturbance in their daily lives. They suffer corruption in order that their lives are smooth. We have all seen that any party which does strikes, dharnas and work-stoppages is severely disliked by the public. Those days are gone and Left learnt its mistakes.

7. NASTY SURPRISES: Unhappily AAP kept giving the public nasty surprises at quick intervals (we all know these, and they need not be repeated here.) This created in the mind of people a perception of risk. If they were to give AAP the responsibility of governance of the country, they might have to live with nasty surprises.

8. AAP Has Large Committed Followers: AAP has won more votes in Delhi parliamentary elections than it had won in the Delhi assembly elections. The greatest strength of AAP is that it has a much larger share of committed followers than any other party. But elections are not won from the votes of committed followers alone. A larger chunk of voters are traditional voters and fence-sitters. Traditional voters are very risk averse. You would experience this in your own lives where you will find that people drink a brand of tea for years, but cannot explain a convincing reason for it. But they will not change. This is due to the Risk Perception and lethargy to any change. Fence-sitters are influenced by the “Flavour of the Day” and cannot be relied upon to win elections.

9. AAP Was Perceived as a RISK: AAP got the votes of its committed group of followers and got 32% vote share in Delhi. But the traditional voters did not want to take the risk of a change, in view of the nasty surprises. They knew both BJP and Congress well and they could keep switching between either of them. Voting for AAP was voting for someone they did not know, and, hence, involved a risk.

10. The Wrong or Incomplete Message: AAP’s message was “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat”. Removal of corruption was a very important benefit. But the key requirement of the voting public is good governance. Will you use a toothpaste brand which says that it has a nice taste, but does not tell you if it will clean your teeth. Good taste is an acceptable benefit, provided it comes with clean teeth. AAP did not say this in their communication. They thought the voter will understand it automatically. The complete message should have been “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat AUR SABKA VIKAS”. By selling the “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat” AAP had created an expectation in the minds of people. AAP had created a hunger in the minds of the public. Unhappily it did not say that it also had the food to satisfy that hunger. It may look simplistic but in marketing if the message is not clear and complete, the customer does not change.

11. How Did Modi Take Advantage: Now we can understand the secret of the MODI WAVE. The wave was created by AAP and Modi just took a free ride on it. To the AAP’s message of “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat”, Modi added the message of “VIKAS”. The hungry public lapped it up. They had seen that Bhrashtachar could be removed. AAP showed that it was possible. Now Modi gave them Vikas, and dangled to them the Gujarat model. The marketing message was now complete “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat AUR VIKAS”. A hungry or thirsty person does not check the quality of the food or water available. The public did not check whether the solution offered by Modi is guaranteed to work and will there be genuine removal of corruption and Vikas. In the din and frenzy created by the media of the Modi Message, the performance guarantee of the message was lost.

12. THE NEXT STEP: I hope we have realized how AAP went wrong, by sending the wrong/incomplete message to the public. The next TOPIC is very crucial and shall form the basis of creating the future AAP strategy. Please read, share and give your comments
TOPIC 4:  WHAT ARE THE STRUCTURAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF BJP

Do not miss seeing it and please keep giving your suggestions, comments and reactions. These will help us form a strategy, which will be put before you for your comments as TOPIC 6

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

TOPIC 2: WHAT ACTUALLY LED TO BJP-MODI VICTORY

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

1. The Truth of the massive BJP-MODI win: The media will have us believe that Modi’s leadership led BJP to a landslide victory and created a huge Modi wave across the country. Let us examine the veracity of this claim. 
BJP won 282 seats with just 31% of the vote share in this election. 
In 2009 BJP's vote share was 18.5% and it had won 116 seats. Thus BJP won 176 additional seats in this election, by getting only an additional vote share of 12.5%.
Can 12.5% extra vote share justify itself to be called a Wave, much less a Tsunami?

2. Was it an anti-incumbency vote: This is another false premise. Why were the three states of West Bengal, Orissa and Tamil Nadu not affected by anti-incumbency? If anything the position of the local governments improved in this election.

3. Was it a vote for the Gujarat Development Model: Another false argument being given by both the media and BJP is that the exemplary development of the Gujarat state, crafted by Modi, and shown to the Indian voters, mesmerized the whole of the country and created the Modi Wave. Why was this development not talked about in 2009 elections? Surely, BJP knew about it, if it had existed then. Also, if the Gujarat development model is so great, why in Modi’s own Gujarat, the vote share of BJP is less than 50%. Either the Gujarat model’s falsity is well-known to the local Gujarati voters or its impact on the Indian voters, as projected by the media, is not true.

4. Was it a vote for clean politics: Neither Gujarat is a corruption free state, nor Gujaratis are known to be more honest than any other Indian community. Corruption is an India –wide phenomenon. The well-known business houses of Gujarat are well-known for their corrupt practices. Even many well-known corrupt politicians were given berth in the Modi bandwagon, due to their winning ability. BJP cannot be given the medal of corruption-free politics.

5. Did the minorities vote for Modi: Modi and media is creating a big song and dance about votes for Modi coming from all sections of the society. They are trying to say that this election has proved that minorities have accepted Modi and BJP. As Modi only got an additional 12.5% of the vote share, if Modi had got Muslim votes than his vote share % would have been much higher, as Muslims are supposed to vote en-block. As Indian Muslims constitute nearly 18% of voters, even if 50% Muslims have voted for Modi, this would mean an increase of 9% vote share. This would mean that Hindu vote share increased for Modi increased by only 3.5%. Can 3.5% additional votes justify to be called any wave at all, leave aside a Tsunami? This implies that the maximum votes that Modi may have got from Muslims cannot be over 2-3%. So, we are now left to understand that the Modi wave only meant an extra 9% votes from the Hindu voters.

6. Did Modi have a great leadership image which got him the votes: This is another myth foisted on us by the BJP-paid media. If Modi was such a great visionary leader, why only 9 months before the elections there were at least 5 leaders being considered for BJP’s PM candidate position. Modi would have stood head and shoulders above them, if his leadership was unsurpassed, and there should have been no talk of any competition.

7. All opposition parties failed miserably: Congress in 2004 had 36% vote-share, which has now reduced to 19.3%. Thus Congress has lost about 17% vote-share. Even if we were to assume that Modi’s vote-share increase of 12.5% was due to people rejecting Congress en-masse, even then about 4.5% of Congress vote-share went to some other parties. Other parties, in such a scenario would have increased their vote share and not reduced their share. This is not the fact. Thus it does not seem logical to assume that the voters rejected all parties completely and got influenced by the Modi wave. There was definitely a swing from other parties to BJP, but the swing was hardly 15-20%, which does not mean a wave, much less a tsunami. This level of swing occurs in every election.

8. If all the above arguments do not seem logical, what is the truth of the Great Modi Victory?
The answer to the puzzle and the logically correct reasons of Modi victory is intimately linked to the next topic in our discussion

TOPIC 3: WHERE DID AAP GO WRONG

Do not miss seeing it and please keep giving your suggestions, comments and reactions. These will help us form a strategy, which will be put before you for your comments as TOPIC 6. 

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

TOPIC 1: ANALYSIS OF THE MOOD OF THE COUNTRY

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD

DEAR FRIENDS,
I am placing the first topic for your comments and suggestions.
There are 5 more Topics which will help us form the AAP strategy forward.
Please share your views and comments on today's TOPIC 1.. Based on your suggestions, we shall discuss the next topic.
TOPIC 2:  WHAT ACTUALLY LED TO BJP-MODI VICTORY

TO-DAY'S TOPIC
TOPIC 1:  ANALYSIS OF THE MOOD OF THE COUNTRY
1. Today the media is projecting that the whole country has become coloured by Saffron and Modi has been accepted by EVERYONE as a messiah having a magic wand which will make everyone happier and prosperous.
Is this the truth?
BJP (with NDA allies) may have got over 60 % seats in the parliament, but they got less than 40 % votes polled. What about the people who did not vote and over 1.5 % those who voted NOTA.
The real truth is only a maximum of 25 % of the Indians have shown that they would PREFER MODI.
What about 75 % who have not voted for Modi or have not shown their preference, as they did not vote?
So the BIG NEWS that WHOLE INDIA has become MODIFIED is FALSE.
2. MODI WAVE & GUJARAT MODEL: This is another media created PHENOMENON. Let us analyse its veracity. In three states, W Bengal, Orissa and Tamil Nadu, there are no signs of any Modi sweep. Here the logic of anti-incumbency also does not hold. Also, excepting for minor reports of violence and booth capturing, there were free and fair polling in these three states. If Modi alone stands for development, should we say that people in these three states do not want development? If we say that voters vote differently for state and centre elections then also we cannot answer why these voters did not vote for Modi for the parliamentary elections. Why these voters rejected the Gujarat Development model of Modi?
So the BIG NEWS that WHOLE INDIA has accepted and voted for the MODI development model is FALSE.

3. NINE MONTHS AGO: BJP had internal tussles as to whom to choose as PM candidate. There were many contenders. If in less than 9 months, Modi has created this TSUNAMI in the whole of India, as projected by media, why in his own state for 12 years he could not get over 60 % vote share in three successive elections?
Why in Delhi state elections, just 7 months ago, BJP did not get a simple majority? Did people not know of the Gujarat model at that time? Possibly BJP itself did not believe in the Gujarat model’s truth, otherwise it would have used it.

4. Modi and BJP have fought elections in the last 10 years, so why was the Gujarat development model not sold to people in the last two parliamentary elections? Did BJP not know that they had developed Gujarat because of MODI’s policies?

5. The huge voter turnout in this election is beyond the wildest expectation of any political party. Has this large voter polling increase been created because of the Modi model and his charisma? Then how do you justify the high voter turnout in those three states in which Modi could not create the Modi effect?

6. Why in these elections the well-known caste and religion based politics completely failed and the parties, like SP and Congress, which had always heavily depended on such politics were routed? Can it be truly said that people suddenly realized that Modi and BJP are above caste and religion based politics?

7. WHY THIS HUGE CHANGE: For getting the correct answers to the above questions, we have to understand what happened on the Indian political scene nine months ago, that has changed the thinking of the Indian voter. What has created a huge hunger and positive expectations in the voters for a clean and non-divisive government? What has made them hope that a good government can bring them justice and peace with progress?

8. THE VOTER’S MOOD: What created the huge voter hunger and expectations which has led to the results of to-day?

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD