TOPIC 3:  WHERE DID AAP GO WRONG 


AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD1. Background: Six months ago AAP had created a mass hysteria among the people of India, and the media was reporting whatever AAP said or did. The unexpected success of AAP in the Delhi elections had taken the country by storm. Behind closed doors, established political parties were debating what was the AAP’s mantra of success. They were not prepared to accept that AAP had achieved the impossible by being truthful and honest. Young and old, whether poor or middle class, were equally mesmerized by the simple philosophy of creating “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat”.

2. THE AAP Phenomenon: The political parties tried every dirty trick to create a rift in AAP and tried to break it up. All dirty allegations were levelled against AAP functionaries. They were painted as unreliable, liars and unfaithful. They had ditched their own Guru, and they will ditch their supporters too. They were paid by foreign sources to destabilise India. But through all this the public support for AAP kept growing. AAP had shown that it meant business of removing corruption from the daily lives of Indians. AAP’s success would have sounded the death-knell of all established parties.

3. AAP’S PRODUCT OFFERING: All the above is true and all of us know it. Then why did AAP fail? Was it due to the Somnath Bharti’s Midnight raid? or was it due to AAP’s dharna before Republic Day Parade? Or AAP’s resignation from the Delhi Government caused AAP’s downfall? All these are important causes and all of us know it. In hindsight, we would like that AAP had tackled the situation differently. But did it justify the complete about turn of the public mood and support? The answer is NO. The failure occurred due to a basic flaw in the product offered to the public by AAP.

4. Revolutionary Change by AAP: No one likes a change. Just think - have you happily accepted a change in your life. Change in friends, school, favourite brand, favourite actor etc. The answer is NO. Why? Because change means RISK. You would like to minimize risk, just like everyone else. So you resist change. Marketing on the other hand can only succeed if it makes you change from your existing product to the new product. So marketing requires creating in your mind a feeling of dissatisfaction with your existing product. AAP had to sell to the common man a completely new political system, which was a complete change from the previous political system, by creating a sense of dissatisfaction.

5. AAP Succeeds in Creating Dissatisfaction: AAP was successful in creating a huge dissonance from the existing political system. The people were fed up with it, but had accepted it as they had no other alternative. But creating dissonance is only half the story. AAP had to offer a solution. And the solution had to be RISK FREE. How soon would you drop a new tooth-paste if you found that it caused you irritation in the mouth?

6. Was the experience of the public with AAP risk-free: What does the public want from the government? The public wants that the government should ensure that their daily lives are smooth and without NASTY surprises. Corruption is bad, but public does not like disturbance in their daily lives. They suffer corruption in order that their lives are smooth. We have all seen that any party which does strikes, dharnas and work-stoppages is severely disliked by the public. Those days are gone and Left learnt its mistakes.

7. NASTY SURPRISES: Unhappily AAP kept giving the public nasty surprises at quick intervals (we all know these, and they need not be repeated here.) This created in the mind of people a perception of risk. If they were to give AAP the responsibility of governance of the country, they might have to live with nasty surprises.

8. AAP Has Large Committed Followers: AAP has won more votes in Delhi parliamentary elections than it had won in the Delhi assembly elections. The greatest strength of AAP is that it has a much larger share of committed followers than any other party. But elections are not won from the votes of committed followers alone. A larger chunk of voters are traditional voters and fence-sitters. Traditional voters are very risk averse. You would experience this in your own lives where you will find that people drink a brand of tea for years, but cannot explain a convincing reason for it. But they will not change. This is due to the Risk Perception and lethargy to any change. Fence-sitters are influenced by the “Flavour of the Day” and cannot be relied upon to win elections.

9. AAP Was Perceived as a RISK: AAP got the votes of its committed group of followers and got 32% vote share in Delhi. But the traditional voters did not want to take the risk of a change, in view of the nasty surprises. They knew both BJP and Congress well and they could keep switching between either of them. Voting for AAP was voting for someone they did not know, and, hence, involved a risk.

10. The Wrong or Incomplete Message: AAP’s message was “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat”. Removal of corruption was a very important benefit. But the key requirement of the voting public is good governance. Will you use a toothpaste brand which says that it has a nice taste, but does not tell you if it will clean your teeth. Good taste is an acceptable benefit, provided it comes with clean teeth. AAP did not say this in their communication. They thought the voter will understand it automatically. The complete message should have been “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat AUR SABKA VIKAS”. By selling the “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat” AAP had created an expectation in the minds of people. AAP had created a hunger in the minds of the public. Unhappily it did not say that it also had the food to satisfy that hunger. It may look simplistic but in marketing if the message is not clear and complete, the customer does not change.

11. How Did Modi Take Advantage: Now we can understand the secret of the MODI WAVE. The wave was created by AAP and Modi just took a free ride on it. To the AAP’s message of “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat”, Modi added the message of “VIKAS”. The hungry public lapped it up. They had seen that Bhrashtachar could be removed. AAP showed that it was possible. Now Modi gave them Vikas, and dangled to them the Gujarat model. The marketing message was now complete “Bhrashtachar Mukta Bharat AUR VIKAS”. A hungry or thirsty person does not check the quality of the food or water available. The public did not check whether the solution offered by Modi is guaranteed to work and will there be genuine removal of corruption and Vikas. In the din and frenzy created by the media of the Modi Message, the performance guarantee of the message was lost.

12. THE NEXT STEP: I hope we have realized how AAP went wrong, by sending the wrong/incomplete message to the public. The next TOPIC is very crucial and shall form the basis of creating the future AAP strategy. Please read, share and give your comments
TOPIC 4:  WHAT ARE THE STRUCTURAL STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES OF BJP

Do not miss seeing it and please keep giving your suggestions, comments and reactions. These will help us form a strategy, which will be put before you for your comments as TOPIC 6

Sincerest Regards,
Pravin Gupta

AAP - THE ROAD AHEAD